The average salary of a Major League Baseball player is about $3 million, but in 2009 the first pick in the draft broke through that ceiling. Earning $3.7 million per year, Stephen Strasburg’s $15.1 million over the next four years also shattered USC phenom Mark Prior’s $10.6 record contract in 2001.
In the past, star draft picks have not also has successful careers, and pitchers the most risky prospects of all. In a newsletter for the SABR, Victor Wang found that 62% of pitchers who ranked as top 10 prospects turn out to be contributors (on a scale of bust, contributor, everyday, and star) with only 4% qualify as a star during their MLB career. Strasburg’s credentials certainly make him an impressive pitcher heading into his first MLB season, but are they enough to earn such an exceptional rookie contract?
Last August, Washington thought so.
Last August, Washington thought so.
Strasburg was the only collegiate player on a plane to Beijing two summers ago where he allowed one Dutch hit in seven innings in his first olympic game Furthermore, his minor league debut with the Double-A Harrisburg Senators earned a national broadcast on ESPN. The camera crews certainly did not drive to Altoona, Pennsylvania to take in the stadium scenery – Strasburg allowed four hits and stuck out eight batters in his five innings.
Last night, Strasburg pitched his first MLB game against the Pirates. During the past two months Strasburg has worked up as much hype as when the nation first saw Prior’s skill or Tim Lincecum’s quirky style. But can this $15 million rookie earn his keep? Usually when young players do, their organizations pay them little and expect even less. But after some back of the envelope calculations it looks like Strasburg paid off for Washington last night.
To yield a high return on investment for his team, Strasburg mainly needs to accomplish two things: bring fans into the stadium for the game and increase TV ratings, subsequently boosting ticket and concession revenue as well as ad sales. Last night Strasburg did both.
Early estimates suggest there were about 24,000 more fans cheering in the Nationals' stadium than on an ordinary Tuesday night game against a team similar to the Pirates. Through increased ticket sales and parking as well as a ticket bundling strategy that effectively raised the price of tickets without the appearance of doing so, the Nationals immediately began to reap the benefits of the San Diego State powerhouse. Also, the Nationals kept their hand close to their chest and did not explicitly state when Strasburg’s first start would be. This boosted sales in the last few games as speculation grew that each game would be the new pitcher’s first. All together, Strasburg’s start brought in around $1.5 millions for his organization. That certainly puts a dent in the $3.7 they are paying him this year.
To maintain these heightened revenues, Strasburg needed to do more than show up last night - he needed to prove he was worth the hype and the paycheck. His franchise record setting 14 strikeouts in the National’s 5-2 win over the Pirates has potentially set the tone for a very successful and lucrative season.
The Nationals are hoping to see attendance rise by about 15,000 fans during games when Strasburg pitches versus when he watches from the dugout and a bump in ad sales throughout the season due to higher ratings. If Strasburg can maintain the notable level he achieved last night, this expensive rookie could prove to be profitable.
For further reading:
Biggest Draft Busts, Part 1
image via nibabaseball.com
image via nibabaseball.com
